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ID 116550
Author
Chikasada, Naotaka National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
Nakamura, Yasuyuki Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
Fujie, Gou Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
Obana, Koichiro Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
Miura, Seiichi Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
Kodaira, Shuichi Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
Content Type
Journal Article
Description
To assess the risk of tsunamis from outer-rise earthquakes, we carried out tsunami simulations using 33 simple rectangular fault models with 60° dip angles based on marine seismic observations and surveys of the Japan Trench. The largest tsunami resulting from these models, produced by a Mw 8.7 normal-faulting event on a fault 332 km long, had a maximum height of 27.0 m. We tested variations of the predictions due to the uncertainties in the assumed parameters. Because the actual dip angles of the Japan Trench outer-rise faults range from 45° to 75°, we calculated tsunamis from earthquakes on fault models with 45°, 60°, and 75° dip angles. We also tested a compound fault model with 75° dip in the upper half and 45° dip in the lower half. Rake angles were varied by ±15°. We also tested models consisting of small subfaults with dimensions of about 60 km, models using other earthquake scaling laws, models with heterogeneous slips, and models incorporating dispersive tsunami effects. Predicted tsunami heights changed by 10–15% for heterogeneous slips, up to 10% for varying dip angles, about 5–10% from considering tsunami dispersion, about 2% from varying rake angles, and about 1% from using the model with small subfaults. The use of different earthquake scaling laws changed predicted tsunami heights by about 50% on average for the 33 fault models. We emphasize that the earthquake scaling law used in tsunami predictions for outer-rise earthquakes should be chosen with great care.
Journal Title
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
ISSN
21699356
NCID
AA12875632
Publisher
American Geophysical Union|Wiley
Volume
125
Issue
10
Start Page
e2020JB020060
Published Date
2020-09-17
Rights
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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DOI (Published Version)
URL ( Publisher's Version )
FullText File
language
eng
TextVersion
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departments
Science and Technology