Trends in Head and Neck Cancer Mortality from 1999 to 2019 in Japan : An Observational Analysis

The number of cases of head and neck cancer (HNC) and related deaths has recently increased worldwide. To the best of our knowledge, few studies have examined crude or age-adjusted HNC mortality rates in Japan. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the trends in crude and age-adjusted mortality rates for HNC per million individuals in Japan from 1999 to 2019. In Japan, the number of HNC-related deaths increased 1.48-fold. Age-adjusted mortality rates for HNC were four times higher in men than in women, and the rates for both men and women decreased over the 21-year period. This study clarifies the changes in age-adjusted mortality rates of HNC in Japan over time and will aid in developing targeted screening and prevention programs for HNC.

Globally, the numbers of head and neck cancer (HNC) cases and related deaths have recently increased. In Japan, few studies have examined crude or age-adjusted HNC mortality rates. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the trends in crude and age-adjusted mortality rates for HNC per million individuals in Japan from 1999 to 2019. Data on HNC-associated deaths were extracted from the national death certificate database using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (n = 156,742). HNC mortality trends were analysed using joinpoint regression models to estimate annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC). Among men, no significant change was observed in the age-adjusted death rate trend from 1999 to 2014; however, a marked decrease was observed from 2014 to 2019. No changing point was observed in women. Age-adjusted mortality rates continuously decreased over the 21-year period, with an AAPC of −0.7% in men and −0.6% in women. In conclusion, the overall trend in age-adjusted rates of HNC-associated deaths decreased, particularly among men, in the past 5 years. These results will contribute to the formulation of medical policies to develop targeted screening and prevention programmes for HNC in Japan and determine the direction of treatment strategies.

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