ID | 118759 |
Author |
Baba, Toshitaka
Tokushima University
Tokushima University Educator and Researcher Directory
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Kamiya, Masato
Tokushima University
Tanaka, Naoki
Tokushima University
Sumida, Yusuke
Tokushima University
Yamanaka, Ryoichi
Tokushima University
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Watanabe, Kojiro
Tokushima University
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Fujiwara, Hiroyuki
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
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Keywords | Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment
Nankai subduction zone
Gutenberg–Richter law
Historical tsunami
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Content Type |
Journal Article
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Description | Earthquake and tsunami predictions comprise huge uncertainties, thus necessitating probabilistic assessments for the design of defense facilities and urban planning. In recent years, computer development has advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs), where hazard curves show the exceedance probability of the maximum tsunami height. However, owing to the lack of historical and geological tsunami records, this method is generally insufficient for validating the estimated hazard curves. The eastern coast of Shikoku in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, is suitable for validation because tsunami records from historical Nankai Trough earthquakes are available. This study evaluated PTHAs by comparing the tsunami hazard curves and exceedance frequencies of historical Nankai Trough tsunamis. We considered 3480 earthquake scenarios representing the rupture patterns of past Nankai earthquakes and calculated all tsunamis. The probability of earthquake occurrence was based on the Gutenberg–Richter law. We considered uncertainty in tsunami calculations with astronomical tide variations. The estimated tsunami hazard curves are consistent with the exceedance frequencies obtained from historical tsunamis. In addition, sensitivity tests indicate the significance of the earthquake slip heterogeneity and tsunami defense facilities in PTHAs. We also extended the PTHAs to tsunami inundation maps in high resolution and proposed an effective new method for reducing the tsunami computation load.
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Journal Title |
Earth, Planets and Space
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ISSN | 18805981
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NCID | AA11211921
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Publisher | BioMed Central|Springer Nature
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Volume | 74
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Start Page | 156
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Published Date | 2022-10-22
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Rights | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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language |
eng
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departments |
Science and Technology
Research Center for Management of Disaster and Environment
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