Predictive factors associated with poor outcomes for older adult inpatients in the convalescent rehabilitation ward

This study aimed to determine predictive factors associated with poor outcomes among older adult inpatients in the convalescent rehabilitation ward. We also examined the validity of factors that were identified as predictive of poor outcomes. Study subjects were 104 older adult inpatients in the convalescent rehabilitation ward, divided into two groups based on outcome at discharge. Group I included the outcomes of death or transfer to an acute care hospital and Group II included all other outcomes. Data were retrospectively collected from older adults’ medical records, including: activities of daily living, swallowing grade, nutritional index, and blood biochemistry data. Logistic regression analysis was used to extract predictive factors associated with poor outcomes. Next, we calculated the Stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) for each extracted factor. Two items were extracted as predictive factors with AUCs ≥ 0.7 : N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and days from onset to hospitalization. The SSLRs showed the risk for a poor outcome increased when NT-proBNP was ≥ 2500 pg / ml, and when there were ≥ 35 days from onset to hospitalization. Our findings suggest these predictive factors provide a valid index to predict poor outcomes among older adults from the early stage of admission.